Abstract 16992: Changes in Physical Activity and the Risk of Incident Heart Failure: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Higher physical activity is associated with a lower risk of heart failure (HF). The effects of changes in physical activity levels over time on HF risk are largely uncharacterized. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that persistently recommended and increasing levels of physical activity over a 6-year period are associated with reduced HF risk. Methods: We evaluated 11,185 ARIC participants (mean age 60; 57% female, 23% black) free of CVD at Visit 3 (1993-95) with available physical activity data at Visit 1 (1987-89) and Visit 3. Exercise physical activity was assessed using a modified Baecke questionnaire and categorized according to AHA recommendations: recommended (≥150 min/wk of moderate + vigorous activity or ≥75 min/wk of vigorous activity); intermediate (1-149 min/wk of moderate + vigorous activity or 1-74 min/wk of vigorous activity); or poor (no moderate or vigorous activity). We created cross-categories of physical activity at Visit 1 and Visit 3. The primary outcome was incident HF occurring after Visit 3 through 12/31/12. We constructed Cox regression models to estimate the hazard ratios and 95% CIs for incident HF associated with each cross-category of physical activity at Visit 1 and Visit 3, adjusting for confounders. Results: Over a median of 18 years, there were 1,625 HF events. Compared to those with poor activity at both visits (reference), those with persistently recommended activity had the lowest HF risk (Table; HR 0.67 95% CI: 0.58-0.78). Additionally, at each level of baseline physical activity, increasing physical activity over time was associated with decreased HF risk: an increase from poor to recommended activity was linked to a 22% lower risk of HF. Conclusion: While maintaining recommended activity levels is associated with the lowest HF risk, initiating and increasing physical activity over time is also linked to risk reduction. Augmenting physical activity in middle age may be an important component of strategies to prevent HF.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".