Estimation and Prediction of Gasoline Price in Mexico from Evans Price Adjustment Model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This work adds to the mathematical proposition, which is aligned to the vision of the educational model at Tecnologico de Monterrey. It is a part of a set of situations that have been prepared to cover the mathematical training of students, these have been tested successfully at Campus State of Mexico. All these challenges have the same philosophy: propose situations of real context whose answers could be interesting by any sector of society. The controversy among economic specialists inspired the present challenge; at the beginning of 2018, they were deciding the possibility that Magna gasoline could reach an average price of 20 pesos in Mexico. This situation was proposed to the students of the second semester of mathematics at the beginning of 2018, in order to analyze the problem under the model of Evans price adjustment. They had to generate a prediction based on the question of whether gasoline Magna would reach 20 pesos at the end of this year.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".