Spatial distributions of <i>X</i> <sub> <i>CO</i> <sub>2</sub> </sub> seasonal cycle amplitude and phase over northern high latitude regions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Satellite-based observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) provide measurements in remote regions, such as the biologically sensitive but under sampled northern high latitudes, and are progressing toward true global data coverage. Recent improvements in satellite retrievals of total column-averaged dry air mole fractions of CO2 (XCO2) from the NASA Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) have allowed for unprecedented data coverage of northern high latitude regions, while maintaining acceptable accuracy and consistency relative to ground-based observations, and finally providing sufficient data in spring and autumn for analysis of the satellite-observed XCO2 seasonal cycles across a majority of terrestrial northern high latitude regions. Here, we present an analysis of XCO2 seasonal cycles calculated from OCO-2 data for temperate, boreal, and tundra regions, subdivided into 5° latitude by 20° longitude zones. We quantify the seasonal cycle amplitudes (SCA) and the annual half drawdown day (HDD). OCO-2 SCA is in good agreement with ground-based observations at five high latitude sites and OCO-2 SCA show very close agreement with SCA calculated for model estimates of XCO2 from the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Services (CAMS) global inversion-optimized greenhouse gas flux model v19r1. Model estimates of XCO2 from the GEOS-Chem CO2 simulation version 12.7.2 with underlying biospheric fluxes from CarbonTracker2019 yield SCA of larger magnitude and spread over a larger range than those from CAMS and OCO-2; however, GEOS-Chem SCA still exhibit a very similar spatial distribution across northern high latitude regions to that from CAMS and OCO-2. Zones in the Asian Boreal Forest were found to have exceptionally large SCA and early HDD, and both OCO-2 data and model estimates yield a distinct longitudinal gradient of increasing SCA from west to east across the Eurasian continent. Longitudinal gradients in both SCA and HDD are at least as pronounced as meridional gradients (with respect to latitude), suggesting an essential role for global atmospheric transport patterns in defining XCO2 seasonality. GEOS-Chem surface contact tracers show that the largest XCO2 SCA occurs in areas with the greatest contact with land surfaces, integrated over 15–30 days. The correlation of XCO2 SCA with these land contact tracers are stronger than the correlation of XCO2 SCA with the SCA of CO2 fluxes within each 5° latitude by 20° longitude zone. This indicates that accumulation of terrestrial CO2 flux during atmospheric transport is a major driver of regional variations in XCO2 SCA.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".