The Canada-US Unemployment Rate Gap: A New Look with a New Decomposition for Cross-Country Differences in Unemployment Rates
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Dans cet article, je présente une décomposition des variations de l’écart entre les taux de chômage canadien et américain, en utilisant comme mesures les taux d’« entrée » en chômage (inflow hazard) et de « sortie » du chômage (outflow hazard). Mes estimations montrent que la plupart des variations de l’écart entre 1981 et 2009 sont dues à des changements au niveau de la « sortie » du chômage (autrement dit, dans la durée des périodes de chômage). L’importance relative des effets de ces deux phénomènes (« entrée » et « sortie ») sur l’écart des taux de chômage a varié avec le temps, mais c’est la « sortie » qui, depuis 1997, explique le plus grand nombre de changements dans l’écart entre les taux de chômage.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".