Have actions taken to control fall armyworm reduced the economic cost experienced in Ghana?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The rapid spread of the invasive crop pest, the fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda), across Africa in recent years has attracted considerable interest, especially the effect on maize farmers.The purpose of this study is to understand and assess the economic costs of the fall armyworm invasion in Ghana under different control scenarios.Three different scenarios are modelled: one with no farmer applied control measures, one with limited control measures and one with proactive control measures that were used in Ghana in 2017.Maximum, minimum and mid-range estimates of losses are presented for the second and third scenarios.The study is based on data available from CABI surveys, the Ministry of Food and Agriculture in Ghana and FAOSTAT. Highlights• The model indicates that the coordinated control measures taken reduced the economic loss from an estimated mid-range of USD 25 M (min USD 19 M, max USD 31 M) to 10 M (min USD 3 M, max USD 16 M), a difference of approx.USD 15 M over 1 year.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".