Prospects for Individual Economies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The pace of economic recovery in the US eased in the second quarter of 2010, with quarter-on-quarter GDP growth moderating from 0.9 per cent in the first quarter of the year to 0.4 per cent. The source of the slowdown stemmed from a negative contribution to growth from net trade, as import volumes rose by 7.5 per cent on the back of a sharp acceleration in domestic demand. This allowed the US current account balance to widen to 3.4 per cent of GDP. Our forecast sees the current account balance hovering between 2½–3½ per cent of GDP over the forecast horizon, well below the 6½ per cent of GDP deficits seen at the height of the housing market bubble in 2005–6. NIESR's index of global imbalances, illustrated in appendix chart B3, clearly shows that global current account imbalances have receded from the unsustainable levels reached in 2007.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.008 | 0.009 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.092 | 0.022 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".