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Record W4255367873 · doi:10.1111/1469-8676.12824

The Curve

2020· article· en· W4255367873 on OpenAlex
Elizabeth F. Sanders, Todd Sanders

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.
fundA Canadian funder is recorded on the work.
aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.

Bibliographic record

VenueSocial Anthropology · 2020
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMathematics
TopicCOVID-19 epidemiological studies
Canadian institutionsPublic Health OntarioUniversity of Toronto
FundersUniversity of Toronto
KeywordsPopulationLearning curvePlot (graphics)Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Futures contractHistoryGeographySociologyEconomicsDemographyStatisticsMathematicsMedicineFinancial economics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

As SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 travels the planet, we’re sitting at home on the sofa doing our bit, participating in a biopolitical experiment of global proportions. Under the tutelage and watchful eye of population experts – epidemiologists, public health officials, etc. – we and millions more are invited, cajoled and sometimes compelled to act. Today’s most urgent task, we are told, is to ‘flatten the curve’. But what is this curve? On first inspection, it’s a simple plot of the number of new cases of COVID-19 occurring over time, an epidemiological rendering of the movement of SARS-CoV-2 through a population. There isn’t just one curve, of course, but many. Here in Toronto, we receive daily accounts of curves for our city, our province and our country. We’re invited to scrutinise our curves and compare them to those of other populations. We strive to avoid Italy’s fate. Can we reproduce South Korea’s relative success? Crucially, these curves are not simply accounts of the past, but also depictions of possible futures. Our trajectories have partly been set, we are told, but we can – indeed must – write our story’s ending. Through apposite collective actions, we can flatten the curve, bend it towards a future where our healthcare services are not overwhelmed, thus saving as many lives as possible. We are both subjects and objects of the curve. Operating the curve depends on numbers, yet we are simultaneously drowning in and parched for them. On the one hand, modellers generate unending numeric projections that include staggering mortality rates. These potential numbers are overwhelming. On the other, simple acts of counting have proven deeply problematic and we’re flying blind. We don’t yet know with any accuracy how many are or have been infected, where they are, who and where their contacts are, what the case and infection fatality rates are. Nor are our few existing metrics standardised, making comparison tricky. We must treat numbers – ours and others – with suspicion. Still, the only way to trace our curve, to hone our model projections, to defy our models’ worst predictions, and to escape our domestic incarceration, is to collect such numbers. And to share them. The only way to flatten the curve, it seems, is to show, know and act upon it collectively. For this, the power of numbers to illuminate and bind is vital. In time, anthropologists will have plenty to say about SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19. Even now, though, while working together on our curves, future directions beckon. One is to rediscover in biopolitics not just bare life and the politics of death, but the productive regulation of population; those instances, as Foucault famously put it, when power operates to ensure, sustain and multiply life. Then come numbers, counting, metrics, standardisation and quantification: all things anthropologists often love to hate. True, these things can seduce, reduce and deceive. But they can also foster life and enhance our ability to work on it. Taking numbers and their life-sustaining capacity seriously wouldn’t go amiss. Our lives may depend on it.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.006
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.955
Threshold uncertainty score0.767

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.006
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0010.002
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.378
GPT teacher head0.497
Teacher spread0.119 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it