Long-Term Trends in Spring Arrival Dates of Migrant Birds at Delta Marsh, Manitoba, in Relation to Climate Change
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We examined a 63-year data set of dates of first spring sightings for 96 species of migrant birds at Delta Marsh, Manitoba, and considered the influence of local climate change on those arrival dates. Mean monthly spring temperatures increased (0.6–3.8°C) for all four months considered; however, trends for February and March were stronger than those for April and May. Over the 63-year period, 27 species significantly altered their arrival dates. Most of those species arrived significantly earlier; whereas only two species, Greater Yellowlegs (Tringa melanoleuca) and Lesser Yellowlegs (T. flavipes), arrived significantly later over time. About half of the migrants showed significant relationships between arrival dates and mean temperature for their month of arrival. Fifteen species showed significantly earlier arrivals over time and a significant relationship between arrival date and temperature. We also characterized migrants by taxon, breeding status, and wintering location to determine whether there were any trends for altered arrivals within certain groups. Waterfowl, species that breed at Delta Marsh, and short-distance migrants showed slightly higher incidences of advancing arrival dates compared with other groups. Our results provide evidence that climate warming has influenced spring migration arrival dates of several species in Manitoba. Tendances à Long-terme des Dates d'Arrivée Printanières des Oiseaux Migrateurs dans le Delta Marsh, Manitoba, en Relation avec les Changements Climatiques
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".