Coordinated fiscal stimulus in the Euro Area
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Euro Area will experience a deep and relatively protracted recession. In the third quarter of 2008 Euro Area GDP fell by 0.2 per cent on a quarterly basis and we estimate that in the fourth quarter it dropped by a further 1 per cent. In 2009, the European Monetary Union is expected to suffer the sharpest downturn it has ever experienced, and it is expected to be sharper than the downturns experienced by member countries in the early 1990s and 1980s as well as the mid 1970s — see figure 17. The economy is expected to contract by 2 per cent year-on-year. In 2010 the Euro Area economy is expected to show no growth at all in annual terms, before it slowly returns to its potential growth path in the medium term. In the longer term there may be scarring from the crisis on the level of output, but we suggest that it will be noticeably less than in the UK and the US as they economies have been more dependent on financial services.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it