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Record W4256473591 · doi:10.1353/jod.0.0192

How a Dictator Became Vulnerable

2020· article· en· W4256473591 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of democracy · 2020
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldArts and Humanities
TopicHistorical and Contemporary Political Dynamics
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Toronto
Fundersnot available
KeywordsDictatorPolitical sciencePsychologyDevelopment economicsEconomicsLawPolitics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

In August 2020, Belarus-a country known for its persistent autocracy and popular quiescence-exploded in mass prodemocracy protests.Following a fraudulent presidential election on August 9, hundreds of thousands took to the streets.The demonstrations posed an unprecedented threat to Alyaksandr Lukashenka, who has ruled Belarus for more than a quarter-century.At the same time, protest leaders have explicitly distinguished their new movement from the "color revolutions" that have taken place in other postcommunist countries.Rather than calling for major changes in geopolitical orientation, as in Ukraine's 2013-14 EuroMaidan, they have focused their demands on free and democratic elections together with a return to the constitutional status quo that existed before Lukashenka.While seeking to overturn a personalist dictatorship, opposition leaders have sought to portray themselves as essentially antirevolutionary.This democratic uprising was the product of both growing popular discontent and Lukashenka's own miscalculations.Lukashenka himself came out of nowhere to win the 1994 presidential election thanks in part to the fact that he was underestimated by the establishment as a country bumpkin.In 2020, he in turn gave a critical opening to his main challenger, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, because he did not take women seriously.Indeed, the first serious challenge to Lukashenka's rule in two decades was directly enabled by misogyny.The emergence of a powerful prodemocratic movement came as a shock.Belarus, which became independent in 1991, has long been considered a pro-Soviet bastion.Its neighbors on three sides are countries-Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine-that hosted powerful anticommunist movements when the Soviet bloc began crumbling in the

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.804
Threshold uncertainty score0.633

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.040
GPT teacher head0.203
Teacher spread0.163 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it