Bref aperçu d’un modèle à forme réduite de prévision de la dépense nationale brute au Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper presents a critical evaluation of a St-Louis type monetarist reduced-form model for Canada. The model centres on two equations estimated over the 1957-1977 sample period. An expenditure equation relates the growth of nominal GNE to the rate of monetary expansion and to changes in autonomous expenditure. The split between real growth and inflation is modelled through a simple Phillips curve with adaptive expectations. The dynamic properties of the model are discussed, and illustrated with simulations of alternative monetary growth paths. The analysis reveals some disturbing characteristics of this type of model. For instance, the responses of GNE to money supply changes or to price shocks are not symmetrical though both represent the same shock to real money supply. The price response to a monetary shock, while more plausible than in most large macroeconomic models, remains inadequate since increased monetary expansion results in higher real money supply accompanying higher inflation. The author nevertheless leaves the impression that reduced form models are a useful starting point for econometric research; their limitations are only an invitation to further refinements.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".