From Dynamics to Novelty: An Agent-Based Model of the Economic System
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The modern economy is both a complex self-organizing system and an innovative, evolving one. Contemporary theory, however, treats it essentially as a static equilibrium system. Here we propose a formal framework to capture its complex, evolving nature. We develop an agent-based model of an economic system in which firms interact with each other and with consumers through market transactions. Production functions are represented by a pair of von Neumann technology matrices, and firms implement production plans taking into account current price levels for their inputs and output. Prices are determined by the relation between aggregate demand and supply. In the absence of exogenous perturbations the system fluctuates around its equilibrium state. New firms are introduced when profits are above normal, and are ultimately eliminated when losses persist. The varying number of firms represents a recurrent perturbation. The system thus exhibits dynamics at two levels: the dynamics of prices and output, and the dynamics of system size. The model aims to be realistic in its fundamental structure, but is kept simple in order to be computationally efficient. The ultimate aim is to use it as a platform for modeling the structural evolution of an economic system. Currently the model includes one form of structural evolution, the ability to generate new technologies and new products.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".