Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Vaccine hesitancy is a major threat to public health. While the root causes of vaccine hesitancy are numerous, they largely revolve around some form of perceived risk to the self. In particular, the unknown long-term risks are amongst the most frequently cited concerns. In this work, we show that regardless of their peak onset following vaccination, the incidence of adverse outcomes will follow some distribution f ( x | µ, σ 2 ) of mean onset µ , and standard deviation σ , and variance σ 2 . Despite the small proportion of events at the tails of these distributions, the large-scale public deployment of vaccines would imply that any signal for a given adverse outcome would be observed soon after distribution begins, even in cases where t x < t µ− 3 σ . The absence of such an early signal, however low, would suggest that long term effects are unlikely and that vaccine safety is therefore likely. Indeed, when enough individuals have been exposed to a new therapy - even if the majority of adverse outcomes only manifest at a future time t µ , the number of adverse outcomes given by the cumulative density function (CDF) near t 0 + dt > 0. Otherwise stated: We evoke the theory behind normal (Gaussian) and skew-normal distributions and use Chebyshev’s Theorem to evaluate the COVID-19 vaccine data as an example. The findings of this study are not vaccine-specific and can be applied to assess the health effects of the mass distribution of any good, treatment or policy at large.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.023 | 0.164 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.013 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.007 | 0.009 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.018 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".