Predicting Organization Performance Changes: A Sequential Data-Based Framework
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The business environment is increasingly uncertain due to the rapid development of disruptive information technologies, the changing global economy, and the COVID-19 pandemic. This brings great uncertainties to investors to predict the performance changes and risks of companies. This research proposes a sequential data-based framework that aggregates data from multiple sources including both structured and unstructured data to predict the performance changes. It leverages data generated from the early risk warning system in China stock market to measure and predict organization performance changes based on the risk warning status changes of public companies. Different from the models in existing literature that focus on the prediction of risk warning of companies, our framework predicts a portfolio of organization performance changes, including business decline and recovery, thus helping investors to not only predict public company risks, but also discover investment opportunities. By incorporating sequential data, our framework achieves 92.3% macro-F1 value on real-world data from listed companies in China, outperforming other static models.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".