Longitudinal SARS-CoV-2 RNA wastewater monitoring across a range of scales correlates with total and regional COVID-19 burden in a well-defined urban population
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is an emerging surveillance tool that has been used to monitor the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic by tracking SARS-CoV-2 RNA shed into wastewater. WBE was performed to monitor the occurrence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 from three wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) and six neighborhoods in the city of Calgary, Canada (population 1.44 million). A total of 222 WWTP and 192 neighborhood samples were collected from June 2020 to May 2021, encompassing the end of the first-wave (June 2020), the second-wave (November end to December 2020) and the third-wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (mid-April to May 2021). Flow-weighted 24-hour composite samples were processed to extract RNA that was then analyzed for two SARS-CoV-2-specific regions of the nucleocapsid gene, N1 and N2, using reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). Using this approach SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in 98.06% (406/414) of wastewater samples. SARS-CoV-2 RNA abundance was compared to clinically diagnosed COVID-19 cases organized by the three-digit postal code of affected individuals' primary residences, enabling correlation analysis at neighborhood, WWTP and city-wide scales. Strong correlations were observed between N1 & N2 gene signals in wastewater and new daily cases for WWTPs and neighborhoods. Similarly, when flow rates at Calgary's three WWTPs were used to normalize observed concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA and combine them into a city-wide signal, this was strongly correlated with regionally diagnosed COVID-19 cases and clinical test percent positivity rate. Linked census data demonstrated disproportionate SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater from areas of the city with lower socioeconomic status and more racialized communities. WBE across a range of urban scales was demonstrated to be an effective mechanism of COVID-19 surveillance.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".