Spillovers of US Unconventional Monetary Policy to Emerging Markets: Evidence from Egypt
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper studies the Spillover effect of US unconventional monetary policy (UMP) on Egypt as a case study of an emerging market and a small open economy The authors adopts structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model with variable lag structure. The Wu and Xia (2016)’s shadow interest rate is used as a measure of U.S. unconventional monetary policy. In case of Egypt, we use Short Interest rate (r) as a measure of monetary policy rate; our empirical results reveal that US unconventional monetary policies significantly affect the monetary policy of Egypt but this effect is less on other macroeconomic variables. The main recommendation of the paper is that monetary authority in Egypt should take into consideration the conflict effect of US monetary policy on Egyptian economic indicators, and at the same time it should implement suitable policies coincide with it to achieve the economic stability and targeting inflation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".