Irradiance and Temperature Forecasting for Energy Harvesting Units in IoT Sensors using SARIMA-KF
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Although the market valuation and adoption of IoT in various sectors is in an uptrend, the actual deployment is lagging when compared to the industrial forecasted data. The main reason behind this drawback is the lifespan of IoT devices due to their limited battery capacities. A solution to the problem is to deploy energy harvesting units (e.g., solar to replenish the batteries). However, due to the time varying availability of both irradiance and temperature and their effect on the power output, it is essential to predict both variables. To this end, we propose in this paper a prediction system that does not consume a lot of energy and that can be deployed on low computational nodes. This model consists of a Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) with a Kalman filtering (KF) component. We build this model using an actual dataset for Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. We then demonstrate its effectiveness by presenting the results for randomly selected days in the Winter Season. In this context, we show that the SARIMA-KF outperforms the SARIMA in all scenarios with an average error reduction of 59.3%.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".