Non-Separable Spatio-Temporal Models via Transformed Multivariate Gaussian Markov Random Fields
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Models that capture spatial and temporal dynamics are applicable in many scientific fields. Non-separable spatio-temporal models were introduced in the literature to capture these dynamics. However, these models are generally complicated in construction and interpretation. We introduce a class of non-separable transformed multivariate Gaussian Markov random fields (TMGMRF) in which the dependence structure is flexible and facilitates simple interpretations concerning spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal parameters. Moreover, TMGMRF models have the advantage of allowing specialists to define any desired marginal distribution in model construction without suffering from spatio-temporal confounding. Consequently, the use of spatio-temporal models under the TMGMRF framework leads to a new class of general models, such as spatio-temporal Gamma random fields, that can be directly used to model Poisson intensity for space–time data. The proposed model was applied to identify important environmental characteristics that affect variation in the abundance of Nenia tridens, a dominant species of gastropod in a well-studied tropical ecosystem, and to characterize its spatial and temporal trends, which are particularly critical during the Anthropocene, an epoch of time characterized by human-induced environmental change associated with climate and land use.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".