Inter-seasonal connection of typical European heatwave patterns to soil moisture
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This study aims to increase the general understanding and predictability of heatwaves by identifying and analyzing stable classes, i.e., recur- ring patterns, of heatwaves present in Europe. In this study, we use data from a regional climate model large ensemble (Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5, CRCM5-LE) consisting of 50 possible real- izations of climate in the years 1981-2010 for a Central European domain with a spatial resolution of 0.11◦. We find nine stable heat- wave patterns in Europe, which correspond well with clusters derived from an observational dataset (E-OBS) and extreme historical heat- wave events. We show that historical extreme events can be explained by a dominant manifestation of the same recurring pattern. More- over, we analyze the occurrence of heatwaves in the identified clusters regarding a soil moisture deficit present before and after the event. We show that soil moisture anomalies in preceding winter/spring (JFMA) can serve as a predictor for heatwaves in South Europe. For North Europe we find a negative correlation between the number of heatwave days in summer and autumn (OND) soil moisture anomaly.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".