Using machine learning to predict individual patient toxicities from cancer treatments
Bibliographic record
Abstract
PURPOSE: Machine learning (ML) is a powerful tool for interrogating datasets and learning relationships between multiple variables. We utilized a ML model to identify those early breast cancer (EBC) patients at highest risk of developing severe vasomotor symptoms (VMS). METHODS: A gradient boosted decision model utilizing cross-sectional survey data from 360 EBC patients was created. Seventeen patient- and treatment-specific variables were considered in the model. The outcome variable was based on the Hot Flush Night Sweats (HFNS) Problem Rating Score, and individual scores were dichotomized around the median to indicate individuals with high and low problem scores. Model accuracy was assessed using the area under the receiver operating curve, and conditional partial dependence plots were constructed to illustrate relationships between variables and the outcome of interest. RESULTS: The model area under the ROC curve was 0.731 (SD 0.074). The most important variables in the model were as follows: the number of hot flashes per week, age, the prescription, or use of drug interventions to manage VMS, whether patients were asked about VMS in routine follow-up visits, and the presence or absence of changes to breast cancer treatments due to VMS. A threshold of 17 hot flashes per week was identified as being more predictive of severe VMS. Patients between the ages of 49 and 63 were more likely to report severe symptoms. CONCLUSION: Machine learning is a unique tool for predicting severe VMS. The use of ML to assess other treatment-related toxicities and their management requires further study.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.023 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".