Temporal trends in the epidemiology of inflammatory bowel diseases in the public healthcare system in Brazil: A large population-based study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Population-based data on epidemiology of Inflammatory Bowel Diseases (IBD) in Brazil is scarce. This study aims to define temporal trends of incidence and prevalence rates of Crohn’s disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) in Brazil. Methods: All IBD patients from the public healthcare national system were included from January 2012 to December 2020. Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using log-linear regression for incidence and binomial regression for prevalence. Moran’s I autocorrelation index was used to analyze clustering of cities by level of prevalence. Results: A total of 212,026 IBD patients. Incidence of IBD rose from 9.41 in 2012 to 9.57 per 100,000 in 2020 (AAPC=0.80%; 95% CI -0.37, 1.99); for UC, incidence increased from 5.69 to 6.89 per 100,000 (AAPC=3.04; 95% CI 1.51, 4.58) and for CD incidence decreased from 3.71 to 2.68 per 100,000 (AAPC=-3.24%; 95% CI -4.45, -2.02). Prevalence of IBD increased from 30.01 in 2012 to 100.13 per 100,000 in 2020 (AAPC=14.87%; CI 14.78-14.95); for UC, from 15.77 to 56.53 per 100,000 (AAPC=16.06%; CI 15.94, 16.17); for CD from 12.61 33.68 per 100,000 (AAPC=12.09% CI 11.95, 12.02). A south-north gradient was observed in 2020 prevalence rates of IBD [i=0.404052 (p<0.001)], CD [i=0.218942 (p<0.001)] and UC [i=0.416051 (p<0.001)]. Conclusions: Incidence of CD is decreasing whereas of UC is increasing, leading to stabilization in the incidence of IBD from 2012 to 2020 in Brazil. Prevalence of IBD has been climbing with 0.1% of Brazilians living with IBD in 2020. Funding Information: None Declaration of Interests: Quaresma AB has received honoraria for speaking from AbbVie, Apsen and Janssen. Aderson OMCD has received honoraria for speaking from AbbVie, Janssen, Pfizer, and Takeda; he has been a consultant for Takeda, AbbVie, and Janssen. Coy CSR has no conflicts of interest. Magro DO has no conflicts of interest. Hino AAF has no conflicts of interest. Valverde DA is CEO of Techtrials a Healthcare Data Science Company. Panaccione R reports consulting from AbbVie, Abbott, Alimentiv (formerly Robarts), Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Boehringer Ingelheim Celgene, Celltrion, Cosmos Pharmaceuticals, Eisai, Elan, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Galapagos, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, Glaxo-Smith Kline, Janssen, Merck, Mylan, Oppilan Pharma, Pandion Pharma, Pfizer, Progenity, Protagonist Therapeutics, Roche, Satisfai Health, Sandoz, Schering-Plough, Shire, Sublimity Therapeutics, Theravance Biopharma, UCB, and Takeda Pharmaceuticals. He has received speaker’s fees from AbbVie, Arena Pharmaceuticals, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Gilead Sciences, Janssen, Merck, Pfizer, Roche, Sandoz, Shire, and Takeda Pharmaceuticals. Coward SB has no conflicts of interest. Ng SC has received consulting and speaker fees from AbbVie, Ferring, Janssen, Menarini, and Takeda; served as a Scientific Advisory Board member for AbbVie, Ferring, and Takeda; and received research grants from AbbVie, Ferring, and Janssen. Kaplan GG has received honoraria for speaking or consultancy from AbbVie, Janssen, Pfizer, Amgen, and Takeda. He has received research support from Ferring, Janssen, AbbVie, GlaxoSmith Kline, Merck, and Shire. He has been a consultant for Gilead. He shares ownership of a patent: TREATMENT OF INFLAMMATORY DISORDERS, AUTOIMMUNE DISEASE, AND PBC. UTI Limited Partnership, assignee. Patent WO2019046959A1. PCT/CA2018/051098. 7 Sept. 2018. Kotze PG has received consulting and speaker fees from AbbVie, Janssen, Pfizer, Takeda and Takeda. He also received scientific grants from Pfizer and Takeda Ethics Approval Statement: This study was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the University of the West of Santa Catarina (UNOESC), in accordance with the Certificate of Presentation for Ethical Appreciation (CAAE) 97905918.7.0000.5367. During all stages of this research, all guidelines of Resolution 466/2012 of the National Health Council were strictly followed and complied.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".