A Hierarchical Passenger Mobility Prediction Model Applicable to Large Crowding Events
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Predicting individual mobility of subway passengers in large crowding events is crucial for subway safety management and crowd control. However, most previous models focused on individual mobility prediction under ordinary conditions. Here, we develop a passenger mobility prediction model, which is also applicable to large crowding events. The developed model includes the trip-making prediction part and the trip attribute prediction part. For trip-making prediction, we develop a regularized logistic regression model that employs the proposed individual and cumulative mobility features, the number of potential trips, and the trip generation index. For trip attribute prediction, we develop an <a:math xmlns:a="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M1"> <a:mi>n</a:mi> </a:math> -gram model incorporating a new feature, the trip attraction index, for each cluster of subway passengers. The incorporation of the three new features and the clustering of passengers considerably improves the accuracy of passenger mobility prediction, especially in large crowding events.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".