Exchange Rate and Trade Balances in Brazil: A Disaggregated Analysis by Major Economic Categories
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This work investigates the repercussions of real devaluations in the exchange rate on the trade balance for Brazil, when considering major economic categories, i.e., capital goods, durable consumer goods, semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods, intermediate goods, and fuels and lubricants. To this end, monthly data are used for the period January 2000 and July 2019, and vector error correction (VEC) models. The results suggest that, in the long run, real devaluations in the exchange rate have positive and elastic impacts on the trade balance in all sectors, except for fuels and lubricants. Only the durable consumer goods and fuels and lubricants sectors do not show the occurrence of the J curve. Domestic income has a negative impact on the trade balance in most models analyzed, while foreign income has a positive impact on all sectors, except for fuels and lubricants.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".