Foreign exchange market asymmetries in Pacific small island developing states: Evidence from Fiji
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract After abandoning Bretton Wood, the foreign exchange market has been dominated by three types of economies: export‐oriented economies (China and other Asian countries), commodity economies (Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and oil exporting nations) and reserve‐currency economies (US, EU, UK, and Swiss). As a result, the asymmetric development of the foreign exchange market has reduced the monetary and fiscal space for PSIDS, which face structural challenges such as a low population base, import dependence, aid dependency, climate risk, and political uncertainty. The ‘Exchange Market Pressure Index’ (EMPI) for Fiji is developed in this article to quantify the pressure on the exchange rate and monetary authorities' responses to micromanaging balance sheet impacts. The calculated EMPI accurately reflects four instances of financial distress in Fiji, including significant exchange market pressure in response to growing trade deficits and external debt, the global financial crisis's contagion effect, and political uncertainty. Our EMP Index's robustness is attributed in part to the employment of a dynamic time series estimate method, a time‐varying weighing scheme, and a high‐frequency monthly dataset.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".