On the Analytical Probabilistic Modeling of Flow Transmission Across Nodes in Transportation Networks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper focuses on the analytical probabilistic modeling of vehicular traffic. It formulates a stochastic node model. It then formulates a network model by coupling the node model with the link model of Lu and Osorio (2018), which is a stochastic formulation of the traffic-theoretic link transmission model. The proposed network model is scalable and computationally efficient, making it suitable for urban network optimization. For a network with [Formula: see text] links, each with a space capacity of one, the model has a complexity of [Formula: see text]. The network model yields the marginal distribution of link states. The model is validated versus a simulation-based network implementation of the stochastic link transmission model. The validation experiments consider a set of small networks with intricate traffic dynamics. For all scenarios, the proposed model accurately captures the traffic dynamics. The network model is used to address a signal control problem. Compared with the probabilistic link model of Lu and Osorio (2018) with an exogenous node model and a benchmark deterministic network loading model, the proposed network model derives signal plans with better performance. The case study highlights the added value of using between-link (i.e., across-node) interaction information for traffic management and accounting for stochasticity in the network.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".