On the Analytical Probabilistic Modeling of Flow Transmission Across Nodes in Transportation Networks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper focuses on the analytical probabilistic modeling of vehicular traffic. It formulates a stochastic node model. It then formulates a network model by coupling the node model with the link model of Lu and Osorio (2018), which is a stochastic formulation of the traffic-theoretic link transmission model. The proposed network model is scalable and computationally efficient, making it suitable for urban network optimization. For a network with [Formula: see text] links, each with a space capacity of one, the model has a complexity of [Formula: see text]. The network model yields the marginal distribution of link states. The model is validated versus a simulation-based network implementation of the stochastic link transmission model. The validation experiments consider a set of small networks with intricate traffic dynamics. For all scenarios, the proposed model accurately captures the traffic dynamics. The network model is used to address a signal control problem. Compared with the probabilistic link model of Lu and Osorio (2018) with an exogenous node model and a benchmark deterministic network loading model, the proposed network model derives signal plans with better performance. The case study highlights the added value of using between-link (i.e., across-node) interaction information for traffic management and accounting for stochasticity in the network.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".