Identifying countries at risk of fiscal crises: High‐debt developed countries
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Crises in European countries in 2010 and beyond demonstrated that fiscal crises and sovereign default are not confined to emerging and developing countries. Advanced economies can sustain much larger debt‐to‐GDP ratios than emerging economies. But how much larger? Experience is heterogeneous both across countries and across time. What determines this heterogeneity? We show that a low growth‐adjusted interest rate, a large maximum value for the primary surplus and a strong surplus responsiveness to debt can support higher debt‐to‐GDP ratios without fiscal crisis. We use our estimates to assess fiscal crisis risk for nine high‐debt developed countries following the financial crisis in 2008. Our results imply that Ireland and Portugal lost access to financial markets because of the rise in growth‐adjusted interest rate, whereas Greece would have lost access regardless of the interest rate. Additionally, our results warn of potential future crises for Greece, Italy and Japan even if these countries remain in a low interest rate environment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".