Identifying countries at risk of fiscal crises: High‐debt developed countries
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Crises in European countries in 2010 and beyond demonstrated that fiscal crises and sovereign default are not confined to emerging and developing countries. Advanced economies can sustain much larger debt‐to‐GDP ratios than emerging economies. But how much larger? Experience is heterogeneous both across countries and across time. What determines this heterogeneity? We show that a low growth‐adjusted interest rate, a large maximum value for the primary surplus and a strong surplus responsiveness to debt can support higher debt‐to‐GDP ratios without fiscal crisis. We use our estimates to assess fiscal crisis risk for nine high‐debt developed countries following the financial crisis in 2008. Our results imply that Ireland and Portugal lost access to financial markets because of the rise in growth‐adjusted interest rate, whereas Greece would have lost access regardless of the interest rate. Additionally, our results warn of potential future crises for Greece, Italy and Japan even if these countries remain in a low interest rate environment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".