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Record W4282933036 · doi:10.1101/2022.06.09.22276226

American Covid: An Econometric Analysis of Variants

2022· preprint· en· W4282933036 on OpenAlexaff
James McIntosh

Bibliographic record

VenuemedRxiv · 2022
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicSARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
Canadian institutionsConcordia University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsDeltaCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)ImmunityVaccinationSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)2019-20 coronavirus outbreakEconometric analysisVirologyBiologyValue (mathematics)DemographyImmunologyGeographyMedicineEconometricsEconomicsStatisticsInternal medicineImmune systemOutbreakMathematicsSociologyDiseaseEngineering

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Covid-19 time series data on new cases from the United States for the period January 20, 2020 to February 7, 2022 is analyzed using a distributed lag econometric model applied to the Wild Type, Alpha, and Delta variants to determine the relative efficacy of vaccines and previous infection induced immunity. The results from this study confirm, for the most part, what others have found using large cross section samples: vaccines are effective in dealing with all three variants, more so with Delta. Infection induced immunity is always greater than or equal that delivered by a vaccination and is largest for the Delta variant. However, in the Delta case previous non-Delta infections had no prophylactic value in preventing new Delta infections.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.005
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.014
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.029
Threshold uncertainty score0.057

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0050.014
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0020.002
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0040.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.073
GPT teacher head0.392
Teacher spread0.320 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2022
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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Same venuemedRxiv→Same topicSARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research→French-language works237,207→