Changes in Temporal Properties of Notifiable Infectious Disease Epidemics in China During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Population-Based Surveillance Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: COVID-19 was first reported in 2019, and the Chinese government immediately carried out stringent and effective control measures in response to the epidemic. OBJECTIVE: Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may have impacted incidences of other infectious diseases as well. Potential explanations underlying this reduction, however, are not clear. Hence, in this study, we aim to study the influence of the COVID-19 prevention policies on other infectious diseases (mainly class B infectious diseases) in China. METHODS: Time series data sets between 2017 and 2021 for 23 notifiable infectious diseases were extracted from public data sets from the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China. Several indices (peak and trough amplitudes, infection selectivity, preferred time to outbreak, oscillatory strength) of each infectious disease were calculated before and after the COVID-19 outbreak. RESULTS: We found that the prevention and control policies for COVID-19 had a strong, significant reduction effect on outbreaks of other infectious diseases. A clear event-related trough (ERT) was observed after the outbreak of COVID-19 under the strict control policies, and its decreasing amplitude is related to the infection selectivity and preferred outbreak time of the disease before COVID-19. We also calculated the oscillatory strength before and after the COVID-19 outbreak and found that it was significantly stronger before the COVID-19 outbreak and does not correlate with the trough amplitude. CONCLUSIONS: Our results directly demonstrate that prevention policies for COVID-19 have immediate additional benefits for controlling most class B infectious diseases, and several factors (infection selectivity, preferred outbreak time) may have contributed to the reduction in outbreaks. This study may guide the implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions to control a wider range of infectious diseases.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.010 | 0.015 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".