Machine learning approaches to the human metabolome in sepsis identify metabolic links with survival
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Metabolic predictors and potential mediators of survival in sepsis have been incompletely characterized. We examined whether machine learning (ML) tools applied to the human plasma metabolome could consistently identify and prioritize metabolites implicated in sepsis survivorship, and whether these methods improved upon conventional statistical approaches. METHODS: Plasma gas chromatography-liquid chromatography mass spectrometry quantified 411 metabolites measured ≤ 72 h of ICU admission in 60 patients with sepsis at a single center (Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, USA). Seven ML approaches were trained to differentiate survivors from non-survivors. Model performance predicting 28 day mortality was assessed through internal cross-validation, and innate top-feature (metabolite) selection and rankings were compared across the 7 ML approaches and with conventional statistical methods (logistic regression). Metabolites were consensus ranked by a summary, ensemble ML ranking procedure weighing their contribution to mortality risk prediction across multiple ML models. RESULTS: Median (IQR) patient age was 58 (47, 62) years, 45% were women, and median (IQR) SOFA score was 9 (6, 12). Mortality at 28 days was 42%. The models' specificity ranged from 0.619 to 0.821. Partial least squares regression-discriminant analysis and nearest shrunken centroids prioritized the greatest number of metabolites identified by at least one other method. Penalized logistic regression demonstrated top-feature results that were consistent with many ML methods. Across the plasma metabolome, the 13 metabolites with the strongest linkage to mortality defined through an ensemble ML importance score included lactate, bilirubin, kynurenine, glycochenodeoxycholate, phenylalanine, and others. Four of these top 13 metabolites (3-hydroxyisobutyrate, indoleacetate, fucose, and glycolithocholate sulfate) have not been previously associated with sepsis survival. Many of the prioritized metabolites are constituents of the tryptophan, pyruvate, phenylalanine, pentose phosphate, and bile acid pathways. CONCLUSIONS: We identified metabolites linked with sepsis survival, some confirming prior observations, and others representing new associations. The application of ensemble ML feature-ranking tools to metabolomic data may represent a promising statistical platform to support biologic target discovery.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".