Bibliographic record
Abstract
Signal detection theory (SDT) was developed to provide a measure of the discriminability of a signal against background noise, independently of response bias. However, equal discriminability over a range of bias is only achieved by the traditional signal detection measure d' under a narrow set of conditions – i.e., binormal noise and signal distributions of equal variance and base rates. In response to observed departures from these conditions, more robust alternative measures of d' have been developed, including d_a and, more recently, d'_p . Each of these alternatives address some, but not all, of the difficulties that arise when the assumptions of SDT are violated. Moreover, none of these measures directly follow from a central idea of discriminability by an observer that adopts a minimize error count (MEC) strategy. I propose a new d' alternative, d'_o , that is robust to violations of the standard signal detection assumptions, remains consistent with varying bias, and is grounded in the principle of discriminability following a MEC strategy. Simulations illustrate how d'_o is similar to the recently developed d'_p when the observer optimizes their criterion placement to minimize the number of errors but, unlike d'_p , remains consistent irrespective of the observer’s criterion placement Moreover, unlike d_a , d'_o reflects changes in discriminability related to base rates of signal vs noise presentations. The use of d'_o also has implications for the interpretation of bias metrics, such as β and c, which are examined at the optimal criterion under a variety of conditions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".