Nonstationary patterns in demographic traits covary with Chinook salmon marine distributions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The abundance of many Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) stocks has declined despite reductions in harvest. We used state-space models parameterized with data from 57 Chinook salmon indicator stocks, ranging from coastal Oregon to southeast Alaska, to quantify long-term (since 1972 release year) changes in juvenile marine survival rate and mean age-at-maturity, as well as identify stock groupings with coherent dynamics. We found that juvenile marine distribution—rather than freshwater life history, run timing, or adult marine distribution—was the best predictor of trends in both survival and age. Only subyearling stocks that enter the Strait of Georgia showed evidence of transitioning to a low juvenile survival period, other groupings exhibited low and stable or cyclical patterns in survival. Conversely, declines in mean age-at-maturity were widespread and do not appear to have stabilized, suggesting that future declines in Chinook salmon population productivity may be influenced by earlier maturation or increased adult mortality, rather than further reductions in juvenile marine survival.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".