Developmental temperature predicts body size, flight, and pollen load in a widespread butterfly
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Most of our understanding of the effects of climate warming on insect body size comes from laboratory experiments. Whether these studies predict patterns in nature is largely unknown. Here we examine the relevance of laboratory warming experiments for wild populations of the butterfly Pieris rapae . We tested two predictions: (i) butterflies reared at warmer temperatures in the laboratory should attain smaller adult sizes and have reduced flight ability, and (ii) in nature, this trait combination should lead to smaller butterflies visiting fewer flowers and accumulating less pollen. Overall, we found that warm‐reared butterflies were indeed smaller and flew more slowly compared to colder‐reared conspecifics. Additionally, wild‐caught small butterflies carried fewer, and a lower diversity of pollen grains compared to larger butterflies. Our warming experiments thus largely predicted pollen collection patterns in wild P. rapae . This study demonstrates that increased temperatures will likely have important consequences for butterfly‐plant interactions in nature.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".