Potential changes in temperature extreme events under global warming at 1.5 °C and 2 °C over Côte d’Ivoire <sup>*</sup>
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This work investigated the impact of 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming levels (GWLs) above pre-industrial levels on annual and seasonal mean changes in temperature extremes over Côte d’Ivoire and its different climatic zones. We used the multi-model Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Africa of 25 regional climate models under the RCP8.5 scenario. The changes in temperature are quantified relative to the period 1971–2000 based on five Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices indexes namely for warm spells, hot nights, hot days, cold nights and cold days. We show that a global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C will lead to an increase in the frequency of warm days and warm nights and a decrease in the occurrence of cold days and cold nights across Côte d’Ivoire in all climatic zones and seasons. More than 80% of the model ensemble members project this change at both GWLs. Moreover, the assessment of differences in GWLs highlights that the difference between the 1.5 °C and 2 °C thresholds may intensify the changes over all the country, climatic zones and seasons. Therefore this 0.5 °C difference in global warming is likely to impact upon energy demand and the agricultural system throughout the country and over all of the seasons. This study provides climate information for decision makers related to sectors such as agriculture, energy in their adaptation strategies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.017 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".