GP.2 Deep learning prediction of response to disease modifying therapy in primary progressive multiple sclerosis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Only one disease modifying therapy (DMT), ocrelizumab, was found to slow disability progression in primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS). Modeling the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) using deep learning could identify individuals more responsive to DMTs, allowing for predictive enrichment to increase the power of future clinical trials. Methods: Baseline clinical and MRI data were acquired as part of three placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials: ORATORIO (ocrelizumab), OLYMPUS (rituximab) and ARPEGGIO (laquinimod). Data from ORATORIO and OLYMPUS was separated into a training (70%) and testing (30%) set, while ARPEGGIO served as additional validation. An ensemble of multitask multilayer perceptrons was trained to predict the rate of disability progression on both treatment and placebo to estimate CATE. Results: The model could separate individuals based on their predicted treatment effect. The top 25% of individuals predicted to respond most have a larger effect size (HR 0.442, p=0.0497) than the entire group (HR 0.787, p=0.292). The model could also identify responders to laquinimod. A simulated study where the 50% most responsive individuals are randomized would require 6-times less participants to detect a significant effect. Conclusions: Individuals with PPMS who respond favourably to DMTs can be identified using deep learning based on their baseline clinical and imaging characteristics.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".