Examining the inconsistency of mercury flow in post-Minamata Convention global trade concerning artisanal and small-scale gold mining activity
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In 2017, the Minamata Convention (MC) on mercury (Hg) control entered into force. However, whether the MC is effective and how it reshapes the global Hg flow remain unclear. In this study, we established a method to detect inconsistencies in data on global Hg trade, and calculated the gap between the demand and supply of Hg to the artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) sector (i.e., the largest source of Hg emissions globally) in 39 countries across four regions. According to our results, inconsistencies in statistical data concerning Hg for ASGM activities exist in both Africa and Central and South America. Asia showed a considerably lower amount of Hg applied to ASGM than apparent Hg consumption; nevertheless, the largest consumer of Hg was Asia, predominantly China and India. Many countries in which ASGM is conducted are already MC parties; however, only few submitted their national action plans (NAPs) or have established/enforced specific laws to curb Hg use in ASGM. Analysis of Hg-related trade information suggests that in 2017, the trade of metallic Hg disappeared in some African and Central and South American countries, but new trade flows of goods with higher Hg content emerged. The method established in this study can support the search for countries implementing ASGM with hidden Hg use and flows, thereby contributing to the planning of further Hg control regulations. To enforce sound Hg management, the submission of NAPs should also be promoted in addition to the expansion of MC parties.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".