A storm-track connection between North American cold extremes and European wet/windy extremes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The occurrence of cold spells over North America is statistically connected with an increased likelihood of extreme wind and precipitation events over Europe. This connection involves the state of the North Atlantic storm track in a nontrivial way. Cold spells over eastern Canada, for instance, are associated with windstorms over the United Kingdom in a configuration of positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). However, cold spells over eastern Canada already tend to occur during the positive phase of the NAO, suggesting a chain of processes in which the internal dynamics of the storm track is responsible of both the cold spell and its European impact. Analogous considerations, although in the context of negative NAO, hold for cold spells hitting central United States and windstorms over the Iberian Peninsula. Another key player in the dynamics of North American cold spells are Rossby wave trains propagating from the North Pacific towards North America and then the Atlantic Ocean. These low-frequency wave trains can impact the North Atlantic storm track directly, by reconfiguring the large-scale features defining locally the extratropical waveguide, or indirectly, by promoting anomalies in the genesis or propagation of extratropical cyclones. We try to disentangle this complex interplay by analyzing systematically the state of the North Atlantic storm track before and after cold spells over several North American regions. Anomalies of wave activity flux, in the formulation by Takaya and Nakamura (2001), are computed to assess the relevance of Rossby wave trains for cold spells in each region. The main conclusion of this work is a reconsideration of the usual chain of processes connecting cold spells and wet/windy extremes over Europe: in some cases, the systematic connection between the former and the latter is likely mediated by the pre-existing state of the storm track and not simply due to the cold spells alone.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".