Transit Timing Variations for AU Microscopii b and c
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We explore the transit timing variations (TTVs) of the young (22 Myr) nearby AU Mic planetary system. For AU Mic b, we introduce three Spitzer (4.5 μm) transits, five TESS transits, 11 LCO transits, one PEST transit, one Brierfield transit, and two transit timing measurements from Rossiter–McLaughlin observations; for AU Mic c, we introduce three TESS transits. We present two independent TTV analyses. First, we use EXOFASTv2 to jointly model the Spitzer and ground-based transits and obtain the midpoint transit times. We then construct an O − C diagram and model the TTVs with Exo-Striker. Second, we reproduce our results with an independent photodynamical analysis. We recover a TTV mass for AU Mic c of 10.8 − 2.2 + 2.3 M ⊕. We compare the TTV-derived constraints to a recent radial velocity (RV) mass determination. We also observe excess TTVs that do not appear to be consistent with the dynamical interactions of b and c alone or due to spots or flares. Thus, we present a hypothetical nontransiting “middle-d” candidate exoplanet that is consistent with the observed TTVs and candidate RV signal and would establish the AU Mic system as a compact resonant multiplanet chain in a 4:6:9 period commensurability. These results demonstrate that the AU Mic planetary system is dynamically interacting, producing detectable TTVs, and the implied orbital dynamics may inform the formation mechanisms for this young system. We recommend future RV and TTV observations of AU Mic b and c to further constrain the masses and confirm the existence of possible additional planet(s).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".