Concentration–Response Functions as an Essence of the Results from Lags
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Among various aspects of environmental epidemiology, one is to assess the relationships between ambient air pollution and health outcomes. The goal of this work is to estimate the associations in the form of the parametric concentration-response functions (C-RF). Various forms of the C-RFs are proposed in this short-term health effect study. Emergency department (ED) visits for all respiratory health problems are analyzed as an illustrative example. A case-crossover (CC) technique is applied as a study design. Daily cases are organized as daily counts by the same day of the week in one common month. A conditional Poisson regression is used in the constructed statistical models. Temperature and relative humidity are included in the statistical models in the form of natural splines. Ground-level ozone concentration is considered an exposure. Ozone concentration values are transformed and submitted to the statistical models. The parameters of the transformation are determined by using the goodness of fit criterion. Counts of ED visits are analyzed in relation to a sequence of lagged exposure to ozone. The C-RF shapes are constructed for each individual lag. In a final step, the set of the estimated C-RF shapes is used to create a pooled C-RF shape. The results are positive and statistically significant for nine lagged exposures, from 0 to 8 days. The following relative risks (RR) were estimated from the constructed C-RFs at 30 ppb concentration of ozone: RR = 1.0531 (95% confidence interval: 1.0231, 1.0718), 1.0462 (1.0253, 1.0677), and 1.0387, (1.0240, 1.0531), realizing the CC method, CC method + transformation, and CC method + flexible transformation, respectively. The pooled C-RF shape gives a summary of the associations between ED visits for respiratory conditions and ambient ozone. The estimated shapes indicate lower air health effects than the standard CC methods. Among three considered statistical models, the CC method + flexible transformation is the most appropriate to use according to the goodness of fit criterion.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.025 | 0.081 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".