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Record W4284990268 · doi:10.30798/makuiibf.1033816

A STUDY ON FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON EMERGENCY SERVICE IN A PUBLIC HOSPITAL

2022· article· en· W4284990268 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueMehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi · 2022
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMathematics
TopicStatistical Methods in Epidemiology
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Quarter (Canadian coin)Pandemic2019-20 coronavirus outbreakMedical emergencySevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)DemographyMedicineGeographySociologyVirologyDiseaseInfectious disease (medical specialty)

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The COVID-19 pandemic has seriously threatened human life all over the world since the first quarter of 2020. Hospitals have fought on the frontlines against this threat. The aim of this study is to predict the number of monthly emergency service patients for a public hospital. In particular, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of emergency service patients was examined. While the data set for the period January 2012- June 2021 (114 months) is used in the analyses, two different data sets were created for the Box- Jenkins (B-J) and Gray Prediction approaches. Then, the number of monthly emergency service patients was predicted using the SARIMA model, GM (1,1) and TGM. In the analyses, while examining the long-term trend of the number emergency services patients’ using the SARIMA model, GM (1,1) and TGM were used to focus on the COVID-19 period. The findings suggest that the TGM has the most successful results in terms of evaluation criteria.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.006
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.026
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMetaresearch, Meta-epidemiology (narrow), Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.481
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0060.026
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.003
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0020.001
Research integrity0.0000.002
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0030.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.270
GPT teacher head0.439
Teacher spread0.169 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it