On the Mechanisms of Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper we investigate the relationship between the long-term variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the intensity of deep convection in the Greenland, Labrador, and Irminger seas, as well as with the intensity of wind induced upwelling in the Southern Ocean. This goal is achieved by extending the AMOC time series back to the 1950s using the AMOC ensemble index. The time variability of the intensity of deep convection over the 60-year study period is estimated using indices of deep convection, while upwelling in the Southern Ocean is estimated from the mean intensity of the divergence of Ekman transport. The contribution of each of the processes is assessed using cross-correlation and multiple regression analyses. The results suggest that during recent decades, the AMOC variations in the North Atlantic were mostly governed by the intensity of deep convection in the Irminger Sea and of upwelling in the Southern Ocean. Among these factors, the intensity of convection in the Irminger Sea has the largest impact on the observed variations in the AMOC.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it