Epidemiological analysis of the first 1000 cases of SARS‐CoV‐2 lineage BA.1 (B.1.1.529, Omicron) compared with co‐circulating Delta in Wales, UK
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The Omicron (lineage B.1.1.529) variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first reported in Wales, UK, on 3 December 2021. The aim of the study was to describe the first 1000 cases of the Omicron variant by demographic, vaccination status, travel and severe outcome status and compare this to contemporaneous cases of the Delta variant. METHODS: Testing, typing and contact tracing data were collected by Public Health Wales and analysis undertaken by the Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre (CDSC). Risk ratios for demographic factors and symptoms were calculated comparing Omicron cases to Delta cases identified over the same time period. RESULTS: By 14 December 2021, 1000 cases of the Omicron variant had been identified in Wales. Of the first 1000, just 3% of cases had a prior history of travel revealing rapid community transmission. A higher proportion of Omicron cases were identified in individuals aged 20-39, and most cases were double vaccinated (65.9%) or boosted (15.7%). Age-adjusted analysis also revealed that Omicron cases were less likely to be hospitalised (0.4%) or report symptoms (60.8%). Specifically a significant reduction was observed in the proportion of Omicron cases reporting anosmia (8.9%). CONCLUSION: Key findings include a lower risk of anosmia and a reduced risk of hospitalisation in the first 1000 Omicron cases compared with co-circulating Delta cases. We also identify that existing measures for travel restrictions to control importations of new variants identified outside the United Kingdom did not prevent the rapid ingress of Omicron within Wales.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".