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Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020
Dana Bryazka, Marissa B Reitsma, Max Griswold, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Cristiana Abbafati, Mohsen Abbasi‐Kangevari, Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari, Amir Abdoli, Mohammad Abdollahı, Abu Yousuf Md Abdullah, E S Abhilash, Eman Abu‐Gharbieh, Juan Acuña, Giovanni Addolorato, Oladimeji Adebayo, Victor Adekanmbi, Kishor Adhikari, Sangeet Adhikari, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Saira Afzal, Wubetu Yimam Agegnehu, Manik Aggarwal, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Araz Ramazan Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmad, Ali Ahmadi, Sepideh Ahmadi, Haroon Ahmed, Tarik A. Rashid, Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna, Hanadi Al Hamad, Md. Zakiul Alam, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Yousef Alimohamadi, Atiyeh Alizadeh, Kasim Allel, Jordi Alonso, Saba Alvand, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Firehiwot Amare, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw, Sohrab Amiri, Robert Ancuceanu, Jason A Anderson, Cătălina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Andrei, Jalal Arabloo, Muhammad Arshad, Anton A Artamonov, Zahra Aryan, Malke Asaad, Mulusew Andualem Asemahagn, Thomas Astell‐Burt, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Desta Debalkie Atnafu, Prince Atorkey, Alok Atreya, Floriane Ausloos, Marcel Ausloos, Getinet Ayano, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Olatunde Ayinde, José Luís Ayuso‐Mateos, Sina Azadnajafabad, Melkalem Mamuye Azanaw, Mohammadreza Azangou‐Khyavy, Amirhossein Azari Jafari, Ahmed Y. Azzam, Ashish Badiye, Nasser Bagheri, Sara Bagherieh, Mohan Bairwa, Shankar M Bakkannavar, Ravleen Kaur Bakshi, Awraris Hailu Bilchut, Till Bärnighausen, Fabio Barra, Amadou Barrow, Pritish Baskaran, Luı́s Belo, Derrick Bennett, Isabela M. Benseñor, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Neeraj Bhala, Ashish Bhalla, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Sonu Bhaskar, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Vijayalakshmi S Bhojaraja, Bagas Suryo Bintoro, Elena A Elena Blokhina, Belay Boda Abule Bodicha, Archith Boloor, Cristina Bosetti, Dejana Braithwaite, Hermann Brenner, Н. И. Брико, André R. Brunoni, Zahid A Butt, Chao Cao, Yin Cao, Rosario Cárdenas, André F. Carvalho, Márcia Carvalho, João Maurício Castaldelli-Maia, Giulio Castelpietra, Luís Fernando Silva Castro-de-Araujo, Maria Sofia Cattaruzza, Promit Ananyo Chakraborty, Jaykaran Charan, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Akhilanand Chaurasia, Nicolas Cherbuin, Dinh‐Toi Chu, Nandita Chudal, Sheng‐Chia Chung, Chuchu Churko, Liliana G Ciobanu, Massimo Círillo, Rafael Moreira Claro, Simona Costanzo, Richard G. Cowden, Michael H Criqui, Natália Martins, Garland T Culbreth, Berihun Assefa Dachew, Omid Dadras, Xiaochen Dai, Giovanni Damiani, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Beniam Darge Daniel, Anna Danielewicz, Jiregna Darega Gela, Kairat Davletov, Jacyra Azevedo Paiva de Araújo, Antônio Reis de Sá, Sisay Abebe Debela, Azizallah Dehghan, Andreas K. Demetriades, Meseret Derbew Molla, Rupak Desai, Abebaw Alemayehu Desta, Diana Dias da Silva, Daniel Díaz, Lankamo Ena Digesa, Mengistie Diress, Milad Dodangeh, Deepa Dongarwar, Fariba Dorostkar, Haneil Larson Dsouza, Bereket Duko, Bruce Bartholow Duncan, Kristina Edvardsson, Michael Ekholuenetale, Frank J. Elgar, Muhammed Elhadi, Mohamed A. Elmonem, Aman Yesuf Endries, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Azin Etemadimanesh, Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe, Ildar Fakhradiyev, Fatemeh Farahmand, Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha, André Faro, Farshad Farzadfar, Ali Fatehizadeh, Nelsensius Klau Fauk, Valery L. Feigin, Rachel Feldman, Xiaoqi Feng, Zinabu Fentaw, Simone Ferrero, Lorenzo Ferro Desideri, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Joel M Francis, Richard C. Franklin, Péter Gaál, Mohamed M. Gad, Silvano Gallus, Fabio Galvano, Balasankar Ganesan, Tushar Garg, Mesfin Gebrehiwot, Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel, Mathewos Alemu Gebremichael, Tadele Regasa Gemechu, Lemma Getacher, Motuma Erena Getachew, Abera Getachew Obsa, Asmare Getie, Amir Ghaderi, Mansour Ghafourifard, Alireza Ghajar, Seyyed‐Hadi Ghamari, Lilian Ghandour, Mohammad Ghasemi Nour, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Sherief Ghozy, Franklin N. Glozah, Е. В. Глушкова, Justyna Godos, Amit Goel, Salime Goharinezhad, Mahaveer Golechha, Pouya Goleij, Mohamad Golitaleb, Felix Greaves, Michal Grivna, Giuseppe Grosso, Temesgen Worku Gudayu, Bhawna Gupta, Sapna Gupta, Veer Bala Gupta, Vivek Gupta, Nima Hafezi‐Nejad, Arvin Haj‐Mirzaian, Brian J. Hall, Rabih Halwani, Tiilahun Beyene Handiso, Graeme J. Hankey, Sanam Hariri, Josep María Haro, Ahmed I Hasaballah, Hossein Hassanian‐Moghaddam, Simon I Hay, Khezar Hayat, Golnaz Heidari, Mohammad Heidari, Delia Hendrie, Claudiu Herţeliu, Kamal Hezam, Mbuzeleni Hlongwa, Ramesh Holla, Md Mahbub Hossain, Sahadat Hossain, Seyed Kianoosh Hosseini, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hostiuc, Guoqing Hu, Junjie Huang, Salman Hussain, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Irena Ilić, Milena Ilić, Mustapha Immurana, Lalu Muhammad Irham, M. Mofizul Islam, Rakibul M. Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Hiroyasu Iso, Ramaiah Itumalla, Masao Iwagami, Roxana Jabbarinejad, Louis Jacob, Mihajlo Jakovljević, Zahra Jamalpoor, Elham Jamshidi, Sathish Kumar Jayapal, Umesh Jayarajah, Ranil Jayawardena, Rime Jebai, Seyed Ali Jeddi, Alelign Tasew Jema, Ravi Prakash Jha, Har Ashish Jindal, Jost B Jonas, Tamás Joó, Nitin Joseph, Farahnaz Joukar, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Mikk Jürisson, Ali Kabir, Robel Hussen Kabthymer, Bhushan Dattatray Kamble, Himal Kandel, Girum Gebremeskel Kanno, Neeti Kapoor, Ibraheem M. Karaye, Salah Eddin Karimi, Bekalu Getnet Kassa, Rimple Jeet Kaur, Gbenga A Kayode, Mohammad Keykhaei, Himanshu Khajuria, Rovshan Khalilov, Imteyaz Ahmad Khan, Moien AB Khan, Hanna Kim, Jihee Kim, Min Seo Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Mika Kivimäki, Vitalii Klymchuk, Ann Kristin Knudsen, Ali‐Asghar Kolahi, Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Yuvaraj Krishnamoorthy, G Anil Kumar, Narinder Kumar, Nithin Kumar, Ben Lacey, Tea Lallukka, Savita Lasrado, Jerrald Lau, Sang-woong Lee, Wei‐Chen Lee, Yo Han Lee, Lee‐Ling Lim, Stephen S Lim, Stany W. Lobo, Platon D Lopukhov, Stefan Lorkowski, Rafael Lozano, Giancarlo Lucchetti, Farzan Madadizadeh, Áurea Madureira-Carvalho, Ata Mahmoodpoor, Rashidul Alam Mahumud, Alaa Makki, Mohammad‐Reza Malekpour, Narayana Manjunatha, Borhan Mansouri, Mohammad Alì Mansournia, José Martı́nez-Raga, Francisco A. Martínez‐Villa, Richard Matzopoulos, Pallab K Maulik, Mahsa Mayeli, John J. McGrath, Jitendra Kumar Meena, Entezar Mehrabi Nasab, Ritesh G. Menezes, Gert Mensink, Alexios‐Fotios A. Mentis, Atte Meretoja, Bedasa Taye Merga, Tomislav Meštrović, Junmei Miao Jonasson, Bartosz Miazgowski, Ana Carolina Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá, Ted R. Miller, GK Mini, Andreea Mirică, Antonio Mirijello, Seyyedmohammadsadeq Mirmoeeni, Erkin М Мirrakhimov, Sanjeev Misra, Babak Moazen, Maryam Mobarakabadi, Marcello Moccia, Yousef Mohammad, Esmaeil Mohammadi, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Teroj Abdulrahman Mohammed, Nagabhishek Moka, Ali H. Mokdad, Sara Momtazmanesh, Yousef Moradi, Ebrahim Mostafavi, Sumaira Mubarik, Erin C Mullany, Beemnet Tekabe Mulugeta, Efrén Murillo‐Zamora, Christopher J L Murray, Julius Chacha Mwita, Mohsen Naghavi, Mukhammad David Naimzada, Vinay Nangia, Biswa Prakash Nayak, Ionuţ Negoi, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi, Samata Nepal, Sudan Prasad Neupane, Sandhya Neupane Kandel, Yeshambel T. Nigatu, Ali Nowroozi, Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam, Kehinde Obamiro, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade, Hassan Okati‐Aliabad, Babayemi O. Olakunde, Gláucia Maria Moraes de Oliveira, Ahmed Omar Bali, Emad Omer, Doris V Ortega-Altamirano, Adrian Oţoiu, Stanislav S Otstavnov, Bilcha Oumer, P A Mahesh, Alicia Padrón‐Monedero, Raffaele Palladino, Adrian Pană, Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas, Anamika Pandey, Ashok Pandey, Shahina Pardhan, Tarang Parekh, Eun‐Kee Park, Charles Parry, Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan, Jay Patel, Siddhartha Pati, George Patton, Uttam Paudel, Shrikant Pawar, Amy E. Peden, Ionela-Roxana Petcu, Michael Phillips, Marina Pinheiro, Evgenii Plotnikov, Pranil Man Singh Pradhan, Akila Prashant, Jianchao Quan, Amir Radfar, Alireza Rafiei, Pankaja Raghav Raghav, Vafa Rahimi‐Movaghar, Azizur Rahman, Md. Mosfequr Rahman, Mosiur Rahman, Amir Masoud Rahmani, Shayan Rahmani, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Priyanga Ranasinghe, Chythra R Rao, Drona Rasali, Mohammad‐Mahdi Rashidi, Zubair Ahmed Ratan, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Lal Rawal, André M. N. Renzaho, Negar Rezaei, Saeid Rezaei, Mohsen Rezaeian, Seyed Mohammad Riahi, Esperanza Romero‐Rodríguez, Gregory A. Roth, Godfrey Mutashambara Rwegerera, Basema Saddik, Erfan Sadeghi, Reihaneh Sadeghian, Umar Saeed, Farhad Saeedi, Rajesh Sagar, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Harihar Sahoo, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, KM Saif‐Ur‐Rahman, Sarvenaz Salahi, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Abdallah M Samy, Francesco Sanmarchi, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Yaser Sarikhani, Brijesh Sathian, Mehdi Sayyah, María Inês Schmidt, Aletta E. Schutte, Michaël Schwarzinger, David C. Schwebel, Abdul-Aziz Seidu, Nachimuthu Senthil Kumar, SeyedAhmad SeyedAlinaghi, Allen Seylani, Feng Sha, Sarvenaz Shahin, Fariba Shahraki‐Sanavi, Shayan Shahrokhi, Masood Ali Shaikh, Elaheh Shaker, Murad Z. Shakhmardanov, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Sara Sheikhbahaei, Rahim Ali Sheikhi, Adithi Shetty, Jeevan K. Shetty, Damtew Solomon Shiferaw, Mika Shigematsu, Rahman Shiri, Reza Shirkoohi, K. M. Shivakumar, Velizar Shivarov, Parnian Shobeiri, Roman Shrestha, Inga Dóra Sigfúsdóttir, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Natacha Torres da Silva, Jasvinder A. Singh, Surjit Singh, Valentin Yurievich Skryabin, Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina, David A. Sleet, Marco Solmi, Yonatan Solomon, Suhang Song, Yimeng Song, Reed J D Sorensen, Sergey Soshnikov, Ireneous N Soyiri, Dan J. Stein, Sonu Hangma Subba, Miklós Szócska, Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos, Takahiro Tabuchi, Majid Taheri, Ker‐Kan Tan, Minale Tareke, Elvis Enowbeyang Tarkang, Gebremaryam Temesgen, Worku Animaw Temesgen, Mohamad‐Hani Temsah, Rekha Thapar, Nikhil Kenny Thomas, Chalachew Tiruneh, Jovana Todorović, Marco Torrado, Mathilde Touvier, Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone, Mai Thi Ngoc Tran, Sergi Trias‐Llimós, Jaya Prasad Tripathy, Alireza Vakilian, Rohollah Valizadeh, Mehdi Varmaghani, Shoban Babu Varthya, Tommi Vasankari, Theo Vos, Birhanu Wagaye, Yasir Waheed, Cong Wang, Yanzhong Wang, Yuan‐Pang Wang, Ronny Westerman, Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe, Abate Dargie Wubetu, Suowen Xu, Kazumasa Yamagishi, Lin Yang, Gesila Endashaw Yesera, Arzu Yiğit, Vahit Yiğit, Ayenew Engida Ayenew Engida Yimaw, Dong Keon Yon, Naohiro Yonemoto, Chuanhua Yu, Siddhesh Zadey, Mazyar Zahir, Iman Zare, Михаил Сергеевич Застрожин, Anasthasia Zastrozhina, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Chenwen Zhong, Mohammad Zmaili, Yves Miel H Zuñiga, Emmanuela Gakidou
Bibliographic record
VenueThe Lancet · 2022
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicSubstance Abuse Treatment and Outcomes
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersCilagEIT HealthDaiichi Sankyo EuropeDivision of Human Resource DevelopmentChinese University of Hong KongNational Institute on AgingLa Trobe UniversityFrankfurt University of Applied SciencesStudent Research Committee, Tabriz University of Medical SciencesFaculty of Medicine and Health, University of SydneyEuropean Regional Development FundNational Institute of Mental HealthVanderbilt UniversityGastrointestinal and Liver Diseases Research CenterQueensland Brain InstituteRobert Koch InstitutMedical Research CouncilSchool of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape TownNovartis PharmaSamsungUniwersytet OpolskiDilla UniversityGeorge Institute for Global HealthAmelia Peabody Charitable FundUniversitat de BarcelonaAfrican UnionUniversity of HailUniversitatea SapientiaAutoritatea Natională pentru Cercetare StiintificăKermanshah University of Medical SciencesRajshahi UniversityImam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal UniversityPfizerHáskólinn í ReykjavíkHellenic Foundation for Research and InnovationSwedish Orphan BiovitrumUniversity of ColomboJawaharlal Institute Of Postgraduate Medical Education and ResearchUniversity of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Science and Technology of ChinaNSW Ministry of HealthDuke Global Health Institute, Duke UniversityPomorski Uniwersytet Medyczny W SzczecinieNational Heart, Lung, and Blood InstituteKhulna UniversityDire Dawa UniversityWestern Sydney UniversityTartu ÜlikoolNational Research University Higher School of EconomicsInstituto de Salud Carlos IIIArak University of Medical SciencesCentro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Salud MentalUniversity of TabrizUnitatea Executiva pentru Finantarea Invatamantului Superior, a Cercetarii, Dezvoltarii si InovariiUniversity of TsukubaBritish Columbia Centre for Disease ControlCentre Hospitalier Universitaire VaudoisUniversity of LeedsNovo NordiskInstitut National Du CancerUniversità di BolognaShahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesGöteborgs UniversitetAmerican Heart AssociationRafsanjan University of Medical SciencesNorwegian Institute of Public HealthBabol University of Medical SciencesTomsk Polytechnic UniversityUniversity of GhanaU.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS ReliefMasarykova UniverzitaQazvin University of Medical SciencesSouth African Medical Research CouncilERAB: The European Foundation for Alcohol ResearchKoch Institute for Integrative Cancer Research, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyGuilan University of Medical SciencesTehran Heart CenterNational and Kapodistrian University of AthensBirjand University of Medical SciencesYale UniversityJimma UniversityBanaras Hindu UniversityWollega UniversityNational University of SingaporeNational Institutes of HealthUniversity of Veterinary and Animal SciencesHamadan University of Medical SciencesInyuvesi Yakwazulu-NataliSouth Eastern Sydney Local Health DistrictTehran University of Medical Sciences and Health ServicesEuropean and Developing Countries Clinical Trials PartnershipUniversiti MalayaTabriz University of Medical SciencesUniversity of Cape TownUniversity of OttawaNational Authority for Scientific Research and InnovationKhalifa University of Science, Technology and ResearchMacquarie UniversityKashan University of Medical SciencesMadda Walabu UniversityUniversidade Federal de Juiz de ForaBill and Melinda Gates FoundationInstitució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis AvançatsPublic Health EnglandImperial College LondonLilly DeutschlandCentral South UniversityPirogov Russian National Research Medical UniversityAjou UniversityAmgenAmarin CorporationIslamic Azad UniversityGachon UniversityKyung Hee UniversityU.S. Department of Veterans AffairsKosin UniversityKing Saud UniversityRUDN UniversityShiraz University of Medical SciencesAin Shams UniversityNankai UniversityUniversiteit UtrechtCharles Sturt UniversityInstitut National de la Santé et de la Recherche MédicaleDeutsche ForschungsgemeinschaftAmity UniversityFriedrich-Schiller-Universität JenaQueensland University of TechnologyJahrom University of Medical SciencesLondon South Bank UniversityBaki Dövlət UniversitetiEuropean CommissionUniversité de BordeauxUniversitat de ValènciaSemmelweis EgyetemUniversity College LondonWorld Health OrganizationNational Institute on Drug AbuseUniversité de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-YvelinesMinisterul Cercetării, Inovării şi DigitalizăriiEwha Womans UniversityShiraz UniversityKing's College LondonUniversity of QueenslandNational Institute for Health and Care ResearchWellcome TrustKorea UniversitySanjay Gandhi Postgraduate Institute of Medical SciencesBGI GroupKrishna Institute Of Medical Sciences Deemed To Be UniversityCentral University of KeralaNational Center of Neurology and PsychiatryMashhad University of Medical SciencesAlexander von Humboldt-StiftungTribhuvan UniversityUniversiteit StellenboschMahatma Gandhi UniversityJames Cook UniversityNord universitetInternational Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, BangladeshMonash UniversityJohns Hopkins UniversityYazd UniversityUniversity of HullAksum UniversitySüleyman Demirel ÜniversitesiAnglia Ruskin UniversityUniversity of Engineering and Technology, LahoreBournemouth UniversityAlborz University of Medical SciencesNorthwestern UniversityEmory UniversityUniversità di CataniaMoscow Institute of Physics and TechnologyNational Institute of Mental Health and NeurosciencesUniversity of Central FloridaShanghai Jiao Tong UniversityAlberta Health ServicesUniversity of WashingtonDeakin UniversityUniversity of WaterlooTeva Pharmaceutical IndustriesHelsingin YliopistoAddis Ababa UniversityDanoneAmerican University of BeirutUniversidade de São PauloAhvaz Jundishapur University of Medical SciencesNew York University ShanghaiUniverzita Karlova v PrazeRajarata University of Sri LankaFlorida International UniversityAarhus UniversitetSanofiSocial Science Research CouncilMazandaran University of Medical SciencesAja University of Medical SciencesUniversidade de LisboaEli Lilly and CompanyGeorge Mason UniversityRussian Academy of SciencesUniversity of Rochester
KeywordsMedicineDemographyEnvironmental healthPopulationRelative riskConfidence intervalAlcohol consumptionBurden of diseaseGerontologyAlcoholInternal medicine
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. METHODS: For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. FINDINGS: The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male. INTERPRETATION: There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
metaresearch head score (Codex)0.020
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.028
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Meta-analysis · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.034
Threshold uncertainty score0.106
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.020 | 0.028 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.005 | 0.024 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.007 | 0.011 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
Opus teacher head0.100
GPT teacher head0.365
Teacher spread0.265 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation status
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designMeta-analysis
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".
Quick stats
Citations555
Published2022
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes