Epistemic Logic of Likelihood and Belief
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A major challenge in AI is dealing with uncertain information. While probabilistic approaches have been employed to address this issue, in many situations probabilities may not be available or may be unsuitable. As an alternative, qualitative approaches have been introduced to express that one event is no more probable than another. We provide an approach where an agent may reason deductively about notions of likelihood, and may hold beliefs where the subjective probability for a belief is less than 1. Thus, an agent can believe that p holds (with probability <1); and if the agent believes that q is more likely than p, then the agent will also believe q. Our language allows for arbitrary nesting of beliefs and qualitative likelihoods. We provide a sound and complete proof system for the logic with respect to an underlying probabilistic semantics, and show that the language is equivalent to a sublanguage with no nested modalities.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.015 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.009 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.017 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".