Impact of Boundary Condition and Kinetic Parameter Uncertainties on NOx Predictions in Methane–Air Stagnation Flame Experiments
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract A comprehensive understanding of uncertainty sources in experimental measurements is required to develop robust thermochemical models for use in industrial applications. Due to the complexity of the combustion process in gas turbine engines, simpler flames are generally used to study fundamental combustion properties and measure concentrations of important species to validate and improve modeling. Stable, laminar flames have increasingly been used to study nitrogen oxide (NOx) formation in lean-to-rich compositions in low-to-high pressures to assess model predictions and improve accuracy to help develop future low-emissions systems. They allow for nonintrusive diagnostics to measure sub-ppm concentrations of pollutant molecules, as well as important precursors, and provide well-defined boundary conditions to directly compare experiments with simulations. The uncertainties of experimentally measured boundary conditions and the inherent kinetic uncertainties in the nitrogen chemistry are propagated through one-dimensional stagnation flame simulations to quantify the relative importance of the two sources and estimate their impact on predictions. Measurements in lean, stoichiometric, and rich methane–air flames are used to investigate the production pathways active in those conditions. Various spectral expansions are used to develop surrogate models with different levels of accuracy to perform the uncertainty analysis for 15 important reactions in the nitrogen chemistry and the six boundary conditions (ϕ, Tin, uin, du/dzin, Tsurf, P) simultaneously. After estimating the individual parametric contributions, the uncertainty of the boundary conditions are shown to have a relatively small impact on the prediction of NOx compared to kinetic uncertainties in these laboratory experiments. These results show that properly calibrated laminar flame experiments can, not only, provide validation targets for modeling, but also accurate indirect measurements that can later be used to infer individual kinetic rates to improve thermochemical models.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".