An Individual Level Method for Improved Estimation of Ethnic Characteristics
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper develops an improved method for estimating the ethnicity of individuals based on individual level pairings of given and family names. It builds upon previous research by using a global database of names from c. 1.7 billion living individuals, supplemented by individual level historical census data. In focusing upon Great Britain, these resources enable, respectively, greater precision in estimating probable global origins and better estimation of self-identification amongst long-established family groups such as the Irish Diaspora. We report on geographic issues in adjusting the weighting of groups that are systematically under- or over-predicted using other methods. Our individual level estimates are evaluated using both small area Great Britain census data for 2011 and individual level data for asylum seekers in Canada between 1995 and 2012. Our conclusions assess the value of such estimates in the conduct of social equity audits and in depicting the social mobility outcomes of residential mobility and migration across Great Britain.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it