Drivers and trends of global soil microbial carbon over two decades
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Soil microorganisms are central to sustain soil functions and services, like carbon and nutrient cycling. Currently, we only have a limited understanding of the spatial-temporal dynamics of soil microorganisms, restricting our ability to assess long-term effects of climate and land-cover change on microbial roles in soil biogeochemistry. This study assesses the temporal trends in soil microbial biomass carbon and identifies the main drivers of biomass change regionally and globally to detect the areas sensitive to these environmental factors. Here, we combined a global soil microbial biomass carbon data set, random forest modelling, and environmental layers to predict spatial-temporal dynamics of microbial biomass carbon stocks from 1992 to 2013. Soil microbial biomass carbon stocks decreased globally by 3.4 ± 3.0% (mean ± 95% CI) between 1992 and 2013 for the predictable regions, equivalent to 149 Mt being lost over the period, or ~1‰ of soil C. Northern areas with high soil microbial carbon stocks experienced the strongest decrease, mostly driven by increasing temperatures. In contrast, land-cover change was a weaker global driver of change in microbial carbon, but had, in some cases, important regional effects.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".