ENSO Teleconnection to Interannual Variability in Carbon Monoxide Over the North Atlantic European Region in Spring
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Carbon monoxide (CO) is an important trace gas in the troposphere, while the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the most important tropical climate variability. ENSO is known to influence interannual variation in meteorological variables on the global scale but its influence on atmospheric CO over large areas in a long term is uncertain. Here we report a strong positive teleconnection between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in winter (November to February) to tropospheric CO over the North Atlantic European region (NAE) in the following spring (March to May). This ENSO teleconnection is evident in trajectory-mapped airborne CO data (In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System, IAGOS) over 2002–2019. CO concentrations in El Niño years are 5–20 ppbv higher than those in La Niña years over the NAE troposphere. The regional mean difference from the surface to 300 hPa is 9.4 ppbv (7.6% of the mean). The correlation coefficient (r) between the ENSO index and detrended CO concentrations in the NAE is 0.67 at 400 hPa and 0.63 near the surface, both statistically significant at the 95% level. Such a teleconnection is also observed in independent surface observations, withrranging from 0.57 to 0.74, all at 95% significance level. From analysis of fire emissions and atmospheric conditions, combined with tagged CO simulations using a chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, we conclude that this teleconnection results from the combined effects of ENSO on both biomass burning and atmospheric transport. We find that in El Niño years, CO emissions from biomass burning are significantly enhanced in Northern Hemispheric South America, Southeast Asia, and North America due to warmer air temperatures and lowered precipitation. In addition, ENSO enhances CO transport from these regions to the NAE by enhancing upward and northeastward motions in the fire regions, accelerating westerlies over 20°N–40°N, and prompting ascents over the Atlantic and descents over Europe, while reducing CO outflow at the eastern boundary of Europe. The combined effect of ENSO on both CO emissions and CO transport leads to interannual variability in tropospheric CO over the NAE.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".