Abundance, population trends, and negative associations with lake water levels for six colonial waterbird species over five decades in southern Manitoba
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Management of colonial waterbirds at regional, national, and continental scales requires up-to-date monitoring information on breeding locations, population sizes, and trends. The large lakes of southern Manitoba, Canada (Winnipeg, Winnipegosis, and Manitoba), and the inter-lake region host nationally and continentally significant populations of colonial waterbirds, but the area has been surveyed only irregularly in the past. We conducted surveys in 2017 to produce updated information on population abundance and trends for the six most abundant species breeding on the lakes: Ring-billed Gull (Larus delawarensis), Herring Gull (Larus argentatus), Caspian Tern (Hydroprogne caspia), Common Tern (Sterna hirundo), Double-crested Cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus), and American White Pelican (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos). We also examined the relationship between lake water levels and breeding pair abundance on Lake Winnipegosis. All species but American White Pelicans showed declines in recent years, and most notably populations of Caspian Tern and Common Tern were as low as or only just above 1970s levels, respectively. Higher water levels were associated with fewer breeding pairs of colonial waterbirds. The effects of water regulation in this region on colonial waterbirds and their habitat warrants further research, as does the degree to which the species use smaller lakes spread throughout the western boreal forest for breeding, especially during high water years on the lakes in southern Manitoba.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".