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Record W4287778516 · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2005.06461

India Growth Forecast for 2020-21

2020· preprint· en· W4287778516 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Amarendra Das, Subhankar Mishra

Bibliographic record

VenuearXiv (Cornell University) · 2020
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicCOVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsQuarter (Canadian coin)EconomicsGross value addedGross outputAgricultural economicsProduction (economics)Consumption (sociology)Value (mathematics)AgricultureCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)EconometricsEconomyMacroeconomicsStatisticsMathematicsGeography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

COVID-19 has put a severe dent on the global economy and Indian Economy. International Monetary Fund has projected 1.9 percent for India. However, we believe that due to extended lockdown, the output in the first quarter is almost wiped out. The situation may improve in the second quarter onwards. Nevertheless, due to demand and supply constraints, input constraints and disruption in the supply chain, except agriculture, no other sector would be able to achieve full capacity of production in 2020-21. The signals from power consumption, GST collection, contraction in the core sectors hint towards a slump in the total output production in 2020-21. We derive the quarterly GVA for 2020-21 by using certain assumptions on the capacity utilisation in different sectors and using the quarterly data of 2019-20. We provide quarterly estimates of Gross Value Addition for 2020-21 under two scenarios. We have also estimated the fourth quarter output for 2019-20 under certain assumptions. We estimate

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.002
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.068
Threshold uncertainty score0.134

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.002
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.004
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0100.010

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.144
GPT teacher head0.197
Teacher spread0.053 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

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Citations0
Published2020
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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