Application of Machine Learning Methods for the Analysis of Heat Energy Consumption by Zones with a Change in Outdoor Temperature: Case Study for Nur-Sultan City
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The environmental situation in the capital city is always in the focus of attention of the municipal authorities of the city and is one of the most important factors influencing the decisions. The capital of Kazakhstan, Nur-Sultan, consumes heat energy generated from fossil fuel, and one of the major problems is an extremely cold and long winter. The GHG emissions and particle matters from the coal-based Combined Heat and Power plant have a significant impact on the environment as smog, particularly in the heating season. This work analyses spatial high-resolution Big Data collected from the metering points of 385 houses and 62 heat transmission contours across a city during the heating season. The temporary resolution was 10 minutes i.e., 8754 rows for 5 months (Jan-May). There are shown the findings of the correlation rates analysis between heat energy consumption by zones of Nur-Sultan and ambient temperature, as well as non-efficient zones with substantial losses. In this paper for developing the prediction tools for the Smart City heat consumption there were used mixed modelling methods and machine learning approaches, such as Linear Regression, K-neighbours Regressor, and Random Forest Regressor models. These obtained results could be helpful for predicting optimal pumping pressure for each distribution network using machine learning technologies and finding overheated contours in real time.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".